Prisco’s NFL picks for wild-card round: Bills roll over Patriots in AFC East rubber match, 49ers upset Cowboys

Like some of the NFL teams did with their players, I rested last week. That awful showing you saw with my picks came from my backup. It wasn’t me. Blame the backup. He was terrible. I was getting ready for the postseason.

OK. It was me. I played, and I got abused. LOOOOOOSER.

That certainly is not the week I wanted heading into the playoffs. I went 7-9 ATS, 8-8 straight up and 2-4 with my Best Bets as part of the Pick Six Podcast. That brings my season records to 144-125-3 ATS, 168-103-1 straight up and 59-54 with my Best Bets.

I do like the Super Wild Card Weekend games this week, so I am getting back on track.

My backup did a terrible job last week when I sat out, so I am ready to go.

Bring on the playoffs.

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET (NBC)

Latest Odds:

Cincinnati Bengals
-5.5

The Raiders got into the playoffs by beating the Chargers on Sunday night, while the Bengals are coming off a loss where they rested most of their top players. That’s an edge to the Bengals. Cincinnati has an explosive offense, but the Raiders counter with a wicked pass rush. This will be decided by how well the Bengals can protect Joe Burrow. I think they do it well enough to win the game, but it will be close. The Bengals win their first playoff game since the 1990 season.

Pick: Bengals 27, Raiders 24

Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET (CBS, Paramount+)

Latest Odds:

Buffalo Bills
-4.5

This is the third game featuring these two this season, with each winning on the other’s field. New England won the first meeting in a wind storm in early December, while the Bills dominated the Pats at their place in late December. The weather is expected to be cold, but not that windy. That means Josh Allen can have success throwing the football. The Patriots haven’t been the same team on the road, especially quarterback Mac Jones. Look for the Bills to take away the run and dare him to beat them. He won’t. The Bills will be moving on.

Pick: Bills 30, Patriots 17

Which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender will go down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model on a 136-97 run on NFL picks.

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (Fox)

Latest Odds:

Tampa Bay Buccaneers
-8.5

The Bucs beat the Eagles, 28-22, in Week 6 on a Thursday night. The Eagles were struggling at the time, especially running the football. But it was after that game that their run game took off when they made a commitment to it, resulting in them leading the league in rushing. That will be the key here, but the Bucs are good against the run. Tampa Bay did give up 109 rushing yards per game in the last three, well over their season

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NFL Week 16 picks, odds: Rodgers makes MVP statement on Christmas, Patriots hand Bills another bitter defeat

Week 15 is up there in terms of the most insanely bizarre NFL weeks I’ve ever seen. Obviously having two games Monday and two games Tuesday is a good start to that, 

The Texans scored 30 points in a cakewalk victory, the Lions beat the Cardinals and Tom Brady scored zero points in a home, prime-time loss. It was a weird week all around, fittingly coming in the longest week in NFL history. 

Hopefully everyone can have a winning and happy Christmas, and in the spirit of Christmas miracles, I’m going to write up fewer of these picks and toss some scores for meaningless games at the bottom. 

My ATS record against the spread this year is just awful, but 9-5 last week is strong. A strong close to the season can salvage this year ATS so let’s get hot over the holidays. 

All NFL odds are via Caesars Sportsbook

NFL Week 16 Picks

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: 
NFL Network | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

Latest Odds:

Tennessee Titans
+3.5

Week 15 featured plenty of underdogs barking loudly, so I’m a little hesitant to jump onto a road favorite on a short week. But the 49ers are starting to cook. Deebo Samuel appears to be the catalyst for this run game, with his presence in the backfield wrecking havoc on opposing defenses. Kyle Shanahan’s playcalling has been outstanding and the Niners appear to have a pretty good stable of backs capable of producing on a weekly basis — with Elijah Mitchell out, Jeff Wilson stepped up nicely against the Falcons. Tennessee has been good against the run this season but the 49ers should be able to stretch them horizontally. The one thing I’d be wary of if you’re backing Jimmy Garoppolo and Co. here is the return of A.J. Brown and/or Julio Jones. The latter isn’t concerning based on his recent performance but a quasi-revenge matchup against Kyle Shanahan would at least be worth watching. 

The pick: 49ers 28, Titans 21
Props, Best Bets: 49ers -3.5

Which NFL picks can you make with confidence, and which Super Bowl contender will go down hard? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams win and cover the spread, all from a proven computer model on a 133-96 roll on NFL picks.

Saturday (Christmas), 4:30 p.m. ET
TV:
Fox | Stream: fuboTV (click here)
Follow: CBS Sports App

Latest Odds:

Green Bay Packers
-7.5

The Browns should get a wave of replacements back from the COVID list heading into Saturday’s Christmas game in Green Bay and they’re catching a full touchdown here. Extremely intriguing! But then I start to think about watching Aaron Rodgers on his ‘Eff You Tour,’ at home, in front of a huge crowd on Christmas against a defense that has looked good but got banged up Monday against the Raiders and is playing on a short week. Rodgers held on against the Ravens in the late window on Sunday,

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